The plot thickens

By Aussiegirl

Well, boys and girls, lots has happened since we last checked in with those boys from Moscow, Kuchma and Putin. Without any notice, Kuchma has suddenly fled to Moscow for "talks" with big-brother Putin. This obviously hastily arranged meeting took place in the Moscow airport as Putin was getting ready for a visit to India. Hmmm -- what could be in the works here? On the face of it, Putin is backing Kuchma in his refusal to back a second round run-off vote between Yushchenko and Yanukovych. Both of them prefer a brand new election, so that they can muddy the waters and install their own new stooge, since Yanukovych has been hopelessly damaged by the recent election.
They obviously are also desperately trying to finesse some sort of action that might still win things for them in the long run. I think they are both completely stunned by the demonstrations and are completely unprepared to deal with the situation as it has developed. They hope some old fashioned saber-rattling and chest-thumping will still scare the animals in the jungle.

BUT -- more than likely -- Kuchma is seeking a sweetheart asylum deal for himself. Already the Ukrainian parliament has begun to draw up a series of charges against him. At the very least he stands the possibility of credibly being charged with electoral fraud, but in reality he knows he could be charged with everything from murder to corruption to wholesale fraud and bribery -- and that's just for a start. He has missed the window, in my opinion, to come to a good faith agreement to hold a fair second round run-off election between the original candidates, Yushchenko and Yanukovych, and one which provides for some "guarantees" for him -- of immunity from prosecution for instance, and for some financial guarantees that he can keep some of his fraudulently stolen money.

But now that he has been essentially fired by the Parliament in the recent no-confidence vote, his options are getting slimmer and slimmer.

Meanwhile, Yulia Tymoshenko gave an interview today, in which she said a number of interesting things. The situation, she said, is in the hands of the people. And the people are in the control of no single person -- even Yushchenko -- although they back his presidency to the hilt. They do not trust the authorities to carry out any of their promises, and they will not back down on their blockades of government buildings and they will not go home. They are awaiting the ruling of the Supreme Court, and they will settle for nothing else than that Yushchenko be declared the rightful President of Ukraine and legitimate winner of the election.

The blockades have already born fruit as the recent storming of the Parliament brought about a rapid change from a body which was getting ready to rescind its previous vote that the election was invalid -- to a body who yesterday voted a no confidence measure to kick out the Kuchma/Yanukovych government. The other day they managed to blockage and stop a dump truck which was leaving one of the government buildings. Inside they found mountains of shredded documents. The previous administration knows it has lost and is trying to bury all the bodies before the rebels storm in and take over the palace.

A tentative agreement has been reached for a new vote -- but no word has been given as to the nature of this new vote and whether it would be a revote of the runoff between the two candidates - or a new election. Yushchenko is adamant that he will not agree to an entirely new vote with new candidates.

The crowds are still in the streets in the hundreds of thousands, perhaps as much as a million. They are well provisioned and they are determined to stay until they get what they demand.

In eastern portions of Ukraine, the free media, which is now broadcasting the truth for the first time, is being jammed and shut down. So it is clear that even the supposed "support" for Yanukovych in those regions is based mostly on propaganda and lies as well as wholesale cheating and intimidation of the workers, who are mostly low-paid, ill-educated and entirely dependent on the few large government concerns -- like mining and steel. In addition to the wholesale stuffing of ballots and intimidation of polls, the workers were threatened with the loss of their jobs if they did not mark their ballots for Yanukovych.

I would say that the situation is still touchy and tense, although there is no question that all the battles so far have been won by the pro-democracy forces. But it is when the situation begins to seemingly ease, and tensions abate, and a settlement appears near, that often times the danger is greatest, because the guard can be let down. You can be sure that with Yulia Tymoshenko by the side of Yushchenko, she provides the needed Margaret Thatcherite "don't go wobbly in the knees" support that Yushchenko, a naturally easy-going and mild man needs. The crowds go wild for Yulia -- and she is a firebrand -- a combination Margaret Thatcher, Ann Coulter (she is blonde, young, slim and sexy), and Joan of Arc. She was the one who lead the crowd to storm the Parliament when they looked to be caving in to Kuchma's minions. And she will lead the crowds to eventual victory for her partner, Yushchenko. It may take some more time, but I think the outcome is inevitable.