Ultima Thule

In ancient times the northernmost region of the habitable world - hence, any distant, unknown or mysterious land.

Sunday, October 03, 2004

Let's not panic

By veritas

veritas -- We doan' got no steenkin' bias!

excerpted from -- http://powerlineblog.com/archives/008037.php

So what's the story behind the Newsweak gush that the President's lead has evaporated? Simple -- an agenda. Let's look at some facts they don't quite want to make obvious.

This from powerline blog --

"Rasmussen shows the President continuing to enjoy a three-point lead. Among his respondents, 6% say they changed their vote as a result of the debate--3% now voting for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and one percent now undecided."

"The Democrats' strategy is to dominate the mainstream media with headlines about Kerry's big win and consequent comeback in the polls; they will portray momentum as being all on their side, with Kerry's many campaign blunders forgotten."

But what about the poll itself? Powerline goes on --

"[Powerline] Reader Meg Kreikemeier points out that according to RealClearPolitics, Newsweek's most recent poll included 345 Republicans, 364 Democrats and 278 independents. This compares to Newsweek's published data for their most recent prior poll, which showed President Bush with a comfortable lead: 391 Republicans, 300 Democrats and 270 independents. Yes, if you drop 46 Republicans and add 64 Democrats, you will get considerably better results for the Democratic nominee.

[emphasis added by veritas]

"This is a good reminder of why poll data always need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially until you see the underlying data."

Amen, Brother! Tell it!
Back to powerline for a recap --

"HINDROCKET adds: Dafydd ab Hugh weighs in: 'Newsweek's sample had almost 41% Republicans last time but only 35% this time, and only 31% Democrats last time vs. 37% Democrats this time.' "

As a matter of principle, how can a "news" organization take a poll whose make-up is so vastly different, and claim the result [which OBVIOUSLY follows the poll's population change] reflects the overall voting population? [Yes, that was rhetorical.]

So, dear reader -- chill!
And remember, polling headlines are what they WANT you to think.


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