Birth of democracy

By Aussiegirl

Don't miss reading the following article from the February 14 issue of the Weekly Standard, written by Reuel Marc Gerecht.

It is by by far the most intelligent, analytical, informative and hopeful analysis that I've read of what is happening in Iraq, the consequences of a Shia victory at the polls, and why the emergence of Sistani as the most powerful cleric is actually a good thing for democracy, and a bad thing for Iran and the Iranian mullahs.

He also lays out in stunning detail why Allawi's defeat at the polls was also a good thing, and why Allawi's policies unwittingly led to the problems that we've seen in the Iraqi security forces and the training of the army and police there. And why, despite the CIA and State Dept.'s antipathy towards Chalabi, he can be a valuable force in Iraq's democratic future.

Let's hope he's right.

Some excerpts:


... LET US make an analytical bet of high probability and enormous returns: The January 30 elections in Iraq will easily be the most consequential event in modern Arab history since Israel's six-day defeat of Gamal Abdel Nasser's alliance in 1967. ...
The January 30 elections will do for the people of Iraq, and after them, in all likelihood, the rest of the Arab world, what the end of the European imperial period did not: show the way to sovereignty without tyranny.

...The American toppling of Saddam Hussein has allowed the common man to become the agent of change. This is particularly gripping in a region historically addicted--at least the leaders would like to so believe--to a top-down political identity.

... JUST IMAGINE THE POSSIBILITIES of pan-Arab dialogue when Iraq begins to broadcast the debates within the new national assembly. And remember, the Iraqi national assembly, not the new president, prime minister, and other cabinet officials, is likely to remain the real power center in Iraq, at least until a new constitution is written.

... If the Bush White House were wise, it would ensure that all parliamentary debates are accessible free via satellite throughout the entire Middle East. Such Iraqi C-SPAN coverage could possibly have enormous repercussions. For just a bit of extra money, Washington should dub all of the proceedings into Persian, remembering that Baghdad's echo is easily as loud in Tehran as it is in Amman and Cairo. The president has stated that he wants to stand by those who want to stand by democratic values. This is easily the cheapest and one of the most effective ways of building pressure for democratic reform.

... First, contrary to the rising chorus of Democratic commentary on the Iraqi elections, Iran was the biggest loser last Sunday. ... Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who is now certainly the most senior Shiite cleric in both Iraq and Iran, who is of Iranian birth and early education, has embraced a democratic political creed that is anathema to the ruling mullahs of Tehran.

... Sistani is the last of the truly great transnational Shiite clerics, and his following inside Iran, particularly since he has so publicly backed a democratic franchise, which if it were applied in Iran would shatter clerical power, should not be underestimated. Sistani and his men know very well that the political game they play in Iraq will have repercussions throughout the Arab world and Iran. He and his men are not rash, but there will be no tears shed on their side if Iraq's political advancement convulses those clerics in Iran who believe in theocracy.