Ukraine not Turkey for EU membership?

By Aussiegirl

Kirk Sowell, author of "The Arab World: An Illustrated History", writes an interesting column on his blog, Window on the Arab World, and More! entitled "Note to Europe (and Bush): Let in the Ukraine, not Turkey", in which he makes some interesting points.

In his view (and I'm inclined to agree) the last thing Europe needs is the inclusion of 71 million Muslims into its already muslim-immigrant overburdened population. He posits that this may eventually lead to a disintegration of Europe as its demographics lead the non-Muslim population inevitably towards minority status. Not to mention that the per-capita income of Turkey is a fraction that of Europe, which has already has an endemic unemployment problem.

He goes on to suggest that Ukraine should be admitted into the EU, even though it may not in the long run be in Ukraine's economic interest, given all the socialist bureaucratic strings that come with EU membership. He thinks that the Bush administration's support of Turkish membership is perhaps driven by a desire to curry favor with Islamic countries, more than a true belief that this would be good for Europe. I've posted a few of my thoughts on his essay below.

My comments:

Currying favor with Muslim countries seems about as thankless a task as currying favor with democrats.

Germany already has a sizable
Turkish immigrant problem as does much of Europe -- to wit -- Holland and France. And there is a lot of resentment and anger among the populations of these countries against the Muslim immigrants. Imagine trying to absorb 71 million people into the EU. Germany's economy was done in by simply trying to absorb their former countrymen, who had grown fat and lazy under the Soviet cradle-to-grave welfare system.

I think Yushchenko wants to move towards EU membership because he sees it as a protection against re-absorption by the Russian bear, not because he's thrilled at all the rules and regulations. He also needs the integration into the economy that that will provide. It's a Hobson's choice. He wants to make his move to the west irrevocable, even after his tenure is over.
I think the "Old Europe" nations are exceedingly uncomfortable with the "New Europe" countries, the ones recently liberated from Soviet domination. Their spirit of freedom and independence rubs the socialist Europeans the wrong way. And Ukraine, which is so large and potentially so powerful if it could ever get its economic and political house in order, would really be a major power. We can see why the pygmies Chirac and Schroeder and the lilliputs in Brussels tremble at a young and potentially powerful nation.

These former Soviet Bloc countries have the potential for changing the balance in the EU eventually, and Ukraine may just tip the balance too much for their taste. Ukraine really is a tipping point -- for Russia -- as well as the EU.