Ultima Thule

In ancient times the northernmost region of the habitable world - hence, any distant, unknown or mysterious land.

Sunday, June 26, 2005

The Chinese Dragon Wakes -- and looks to stretch its wings

By Aussiegirl

In a chilling article in today's Washington Times, Bill Gertz paints an ominous picture of China's growing military menace.

For some time I have been watching with great alarm China's growing encirclement of the United States, both economically and militarily. China has positioned itself strategically and insinuated itself commercially and economically into our hemisphere, in Panama, South America, the Caribbean and even in Canada -- while at the same time engaging in modernizing its military might with weapons ranging from tanks, sealift capability, to modern fighter planes, missiles, SAM's, space-based weapons and other means of projecting its power well beyond its immediate defense needs. Now comes a new assessment that shows that we may be waking up to the danger a bit late and that within a few years the United States faces the real danger of war over Taiwan.

In addition, the article makes clear that one of the things that makes this military build-up possible is China's vigorous economy and financial strength. So much for the idea that we would woo the Chinese and turn them into purring capitalistic pussycats once we introduced them to market economics and free trade policies. Instead, what we have done is to enable them to speed up their arms build-up probably by decades. Better that we should have pursued the policies that Reagan did in regards to the Soviet Union. We are not now in a position to spend China into bankruptcy. But it is too late for that.

Don't forget that most of the debt of the United States is currently owned by China, in the form of government bonds. What would happen if they one day decided to withdraw their funds and invest elsewhere? While making deals with the Saudis and the Middle east to cut of our oil? While colluding with Venezuela and possibily even building bases there, not to mention controlling Venezuela's oil? China has encircled us in a web of its own creation, and we are only waking up to the sticky mess.

Where are those wise old China hands, the ones who counseled for years that we could tame the dragon with dollars, and subdue him with western ways, which would seep somehow inevitably into their political life and render them all happy and free democrats, willing to walk hand in hand into the future with the United States, united in trade, united in prosperity, united in democracy.

This is what appeasement and accomodation and cooperation yield when one is dealing with a wily and implacable political and ideological enemy.

Note also, that America is operating under the crippling inability to penetrate China's inner workings -- in other words -- we have no intelligence capabilities there, while China has literally thousands of spies working in our country, as academics, business people and others engaged in ostensibly normal activities.

So, what do I see for the future? I see war. I see a perfect storm of an armed China, working with Russia, cooperating with the Middle East -- all joined together in a world war against the United States. This war will include not only military means, but energy supplies, and cyberwarfare and other means.

Once again the English-speaking countries will become allies, along with a newly armed Japan, which will have no recourse but to re-arm and perhaps become nuclear.

And then -- what of Europe? Europe will have to choose, but I predict that Europe will do what it has always done -- it will try to strike the best bargain it can -- hoping to profit at the same time it tries to play both sides against the middle. In this they will fail in the long run, and fall.

Perhaps the "New Europe" will join the United States, Great Britain, Japan and Australia in the defense of their newfound freedom. They would be unlikely to be willing to be swallowed by the Russian bear once again.

There are very grave dangers that lie ahead, and I fear that America is waking to the danger too late, and that even if we do, is there the will to face down these threats, when daily the media take the side of America's enemies?

Add to that the fact that we have stretched our military almost to its breaking point with our war in Iraq, which shows little signs of resolving. Instead, Iraq is beginning to look more and more like the front-line of fanatical Islam's war with America and the west.

It is clear that we are going to need great leaders in our near future -- leaders with a clear vision and the boldness and courage to face reality and to lead and not follow the latest poll numbers or react to the carping of the media.

God grant that it will be so.

China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials.

U.S. defense and intelligence officials say all the signs point in one troubling direction: Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States, which has vowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.

China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Recent intelligence reports also show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, viewed as another sign that it is preparing for an attack on Taiwan.

"There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless, a senior China-policy maker in the Pentagon. "And what we're seeing now is a manifestation of that change in the number of new systems that are being deployed, the sophistication of those systems and the interoperability of the systems."

China's economy has been growing at a rate of at least 10 percent for each of the past 10 years, providing the country's military with the needed funds for modernization.

. . ."We may be seeing in China the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany, where you have this incredible resource base in a commercial economy with strong nationalism, which the military was able to reach into and ramp up incredible production," a senior defense official said.
For Pentagon officials, alarm bells have been going off for the past two years as China's military began rapidly building and buying new troop- and weapon-carrying ships and submarines.

. . . Asked about a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, the official put it bluntly: "In the '07-'08 time frame, a capability will be there that a year ago we would have said was very, very unlikely. We now assess that as being very likely to be there."

. . . It also is developing a maneuverable re-entry vehicle, or MARV, for its nuclear warheads. The weapon is designed to counter U.S. strategic-missile defenses, according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The warhead would be used on China's new DF-31 long-range missiles and its new submarine missile, the JL-2.

Work being done on China's weapons and reconnaissance systems will give its military the capability to reach 1,000 miles into the sea, "which gives them the visibility on the movement of not only our airplanes in the air, but also our forces at sea," Gen. Hester said.

. . .The advances give the Chinese military "the ability ... to reach out and touch parts of the United States -- Guam, Hawaii and the mainland of the United States," he said.

. . . The conclusion of this official is that China wants a "blue-water" navy capable of projecting power far beyond the two island chains.

"If you look at the technical capabilities of the weapons platforms that they're fielding, the sea-keeping capabilities, the size, sensors and weapons fit, this capability transcends the baseline that is required to deal with a Taiwan situation militarily," the intelligence official said.
The report stated that China will resort "to extreme, offensive and mercantilist measures when other strategies fail, to mitigate its vulnerabilities, such as seizing control of energy resources in neighboring states."

. . .Michael Pillsbury, a former Pentagon official and specialist on China's military, said the internal U.S. government debate on the issue and excessive Chinese secrecy about its military buildup "has cost us 10 years to figure out what to do"

"Everybody is starting to acknowledge the hard facts," Mr. Pillsbury said. "The China military buildup has been accelerating since 1999. As the buildup has gotten worse, China is trying hard to mask it."

Richard Fisher, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said that in 10 years, the Chinese army has shifted from a defensive force to an advanced military soon capable of operations ranging from space warfare to global non-nuclear cruise-missile strikes.

"Let's all wake up. The post-Cold War peace is over," Mr. Fisher said. "We are now in an arms race with a new superpower whose goal is to contain and overtake the United States."


At 1:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They also want to buy UNOCAL. So, now it's not just American manufacturing jobs that have disappeared into China.

Maybe, after this purchase occurs the hidden lining will be the same one that hit Japan after its buying binges in the 1980's? When they bought Rockefeller Center at the height of the then, real-estate, boom.

But ya never know? We've got enough aliens lining our shores, that even if the white people decided not to buy "Unocal," their business would still find customers among all the other travelers?


We worry about the terrorists in Iraq. We protect the oil production all over the Gulf. (If we didn't, it would get destroyed, easily enough by the explode-da-dopes.)

And, whatever tools we're using to design strategy; we've overlooked General MacArthur's dictum. (IF Truman didn't fire him, back in the early 1950's) ... while he was still president. Ike didn't come in until November 1952.) Not only would we have changed the history of the Korean War. THEN, not have had a Vietnam situation that gave the bad guys the boosts they needed in the media to do real harms) ... Ah, if MacArthur's wishes on how to handle the Chinese who were pouring into Korea, THEN ... North Korea wouldn't be building a nuke. Because?

That's what MacArthur wanted to do to end the savagry. And, protect our troops. But just creating a crater that would have worked as a REAL DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN HOW FAR THE CHINESE COULD GO. And, how far we have unfortunately let them get.

What's worse? Those "geeks" on the ground (which is what our troops kept labeling the people from both sides of "north and south" ... hated the American efforts!) Why were we letting our men get killed like that?

What did "time" give us? Well, here ya see that China grew strong and rich. And, China has no mercy for those stupid geeks! Since none of the great business China does ... pours down on these losers. We should pick the people we're willing to protect, better.

Meanwhile, in Iraq, the arabs seem to know the American troops are heavy lifting for them a great, great deal.

Still, what was wrong with MacArthur's strategy? ONE MORE BOMB. It's shook poor Mr. Truman to his roots. He didn't think we'd be seen as "nice people."

So instead of military strategy, we bought ourselves the Emperor's clothes.

What's it gonna take someday to fix this? Ah, "ONE BOMB, ONE PLANE," and, we wouldn't be seeing poppy production growing like gangbusters in Afghanistan, either.

Okay. Nobody asked me. But at least we should be able to resusitate General MacArthur's WONDERFUL reputation. Why did we let that die? We don't know how to make comparisons anymore? Not even when you have real events to choose from? STRONGER IS ALWAYS BETTER.

And, UNOCAL doesn't need any stinking 18.5 BILLION DOLLARS from Chinese businessmen. If I was in Congress I'd tax those profits till there's nothing left. Well? What did it take to throw property rights out the window for our supreme's just now? Well, they thought it was peaches and cream for New London, Connecticut to steal the homes of poor people; so that developers can "develop."

And, we're letting $18.5 BILLION just go into the hands of lawyers, stock brokers, and politicians?

At 3:50 PM, Blogger Timothy Birdnow said...

Chinese generals all say that war with the United States is inevitable. We should take them at their word, and take the necessary precautions.

They really scare me.

Great post, Aussiegirl!

At 4:24 PM, Blogger BonnieBlueFlag said...

A really great post, Aussiegirl. It was an excellent summary of what we are facing down the road.

I have had an eye on China's machinations for many years, and first became alarmed by the situation at the Panama Canal. To me it was a real sign of things to come, which was followed by Bill Clinton's treasonous behavior in consorting with the Chinese.

I wish I could say that 20 years ago, I was astute enough to foresee all of this, however, it was my good ole Daddy, who has been warning me about the Chinese for many more years than that.

If I'd known then what I know now, I guess I should have made him run for president. Haha.

At 2:00 AM, Anonymous John Birch said...

I told you so.

At 7:26 AM, Blogger Billy D said...

Great post (again!) Aussie. China scares the hell out of me, as they see war as inevitable, winnable, and they don't care if they destroy half the world when it happens, as they think along the lines of the ends justifying the means.
They have shelters underground suitable for tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people to live for an extended period of time, should the need arise. (Nuclear war)
In this country, we have protection for our supreme leaders, and that's about it.
One EMp strike, and this country is in a world of hurt, as countries like China (and Russia) would jump at the opportunity to strike us while we're defenseless. Too many nightmare sceanrios to even consider.
Again, great article. (Just like the rest!)

At 5:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Drudge had Bill Gertz on his radio show last night. Yup. We've got a problem.

But I'll repeat this: Hitler wasn't much of a war machine when he got into germany's government, starting in 1931. When Churchill BEGAN calling out the alarm. And, for all of Churchill's efforts, he was tossed from office, entirely, in 1935 ... when the appeasement guys got in WHILE the Brits knew in their hearts they were being lied to. (And, Baldwin didn't want to fund anything military.)

So, not only was Hitler UNchallanged; Hitler began building his military might, thumbing his nose at the League of Nations. While England not only slept; but the leadership let Hitler walk away with all the advantages. More subs than the Brits had. More airplanes. More soldiers. And, because Hitler wasn't shy of provoking his neighbors ...

THE KEY TO REMEMBER ISN'T THE SHIT HITLER WAS PULLING, but the reactions of the "allies" to all of this stuff. They didn't resist. They didn't build their own armies. They acted as if diplomacy held all the keys.

We're not in the same boat.

And, sometimes "size" doesn't matter as much as you think it does. Though it's sad that Walmarts has fed China so much business. And, here, in America we don't shun goods made in China. I wish we did, though!

China is starving for resources. (So, too, was germany. That's why Hitler moved East. To capture Russia's reserves. And, why, today, China will probably move into Russia. To capture the oil and gas stuff.)

While Bush is NOT sleeping. However, that China has been able to build subs! and a navy! You bet that's a BIG problem. WIth the only cure available NUKES. (Which is why I'm glad Bush has ordered Plutonium productions to begin again.)

We fight much too nicely.

It's okay for Iraq, ya know. The arabs stand a good chance with aligning with us. It's only their despotic leaders who intercede. But China?

From WW2, where they were "supposed to be our allies," Mao was just one of the warlords, who stole American convoys. Nobody today knows this. But China got to be communists, when they used America's leftover war might ... AFTER we pushed the JAPANESE off their throats ... And, Mao then did what Castro did in Cuba. But, China's on a larger scale.

Where are the hearts and minds? About 95% of China is poor and rural. The hearts and minds stuff is not in the despots' pockets. Unfortunately, we're cowards when it comes to "targeted killnigs," because we could'a snuffed that stuff.

Not exactly the Queensbury rules book; but how wars are engaged in ... may need some re-thinking.

I don't think President Bush is asleep at the switch. I think he's as deft as FDR. Who also had to handle war preparations BEFORE the public was ready.

Sure, I'd like to see what we had available during WW2 coming back again. Hollywood didn't work against our efforts. Everybody did something. We were on a war footing as a country.

There's lots to be done, ahead, as well.

What about the mosques and the aliens? Not sure. I think there are pockets of perversity. Where you see them electing the Hagel's, Biden's, and assorted arab lovers, into office ... But most Americans WANT BETTER CHOICES.

And, if our luck holds out, we will see heroes emerging. During WW2 we had wall-to-wall heroes. And, Churchill. Today? The orators are missing.

But that may be an MSM problem? They don't let us see stars. They like, instead, to do trick photography, so that poor Mr. Ashcroft could have a statue with tit exposed. YOU LEARN NOTHING FROM THIS STUFF!

Other than having to keep your footing while others are trying to embarrass you.

Remember this. Our Revolutionary forefathers did NOT get embarrassed ... though Paul Revere woke them during the night ... And, some may have flown out the door, sans underwear. Sans the clothes they'd care to be seen in. But they carried their bullets! And, their horses carried them to the fight.

And, they were disciplined, too.

They learned not to shoot until they saw the white's of their enemies eyes.

A perfect world? We don't live in one. But I can assure you if the Chinese need to be taught anything, we're training our military to deliver. Keep the faith, alive.

At 5:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

By the way, I should have added that China is building to go 100 miles. According to Bill Gertz. They're aiming at Taiwan. That's the KEY. Keep remembering that the asians don't mind seeing American blood in the Pacific. But they're cowardly SHITS.

And, what China is planning is a run at Taiwan. That's the move. Before anything else sails down the pike.

And, BIll Gertz gave this information out, yesterday, on Drudge. They're building the navy, with lots of amphibious landing boats ... that can carry tanks ... to takeover Taiwan.

If we had only turned Afghanistan into rubble ... Not afraid to use the "ONE BOMB, ONE PLANE" ... instead of the neater "special forces" operations ...

We'd have spelled out "cost" to terrorists in a way that our current victories don't seem to be doing.

Of course, long term, I suppose it makes sense to take it on the way we are. But if we need a "rules change" I sure hope we deliver this punch in the Pacific.

WHICH IS WHAT GENERAL MacARTHUR didn't get to do when he got into a fight with Truman. I'm sure MacArthur's ghost is blowing down on all of us and saying "I told you so."

And, I hope Americans finally develop the courage to do what needs to be done without turning our military into rivers of blood for no reason at all. We don't have to invent what we already have, ya know?

At 11:13 PM, Blogger Perun said...

The China threat is highly overblown. Many of these people screaming about the China threat seem to forget that China is already surronded by potential enemies: Russia, India, Vietnam, Islamic fundementalism in Central Asia(which the Beijing is extremely concerned will spill over into its Muslim provinces).

China has always been extremely vunerable to attack; thats even why the Great Wall was built! Chinese imperial expansion was always very limited, and certainly nothing compared to European imperialism.

China at the very most will largely be an economic superpower, but economic power alone only goes so far. Japan in the 1980's had an economy equal in size to the Soviet Union's, yet nobody in their right mind would consider Japan and the USSR geo-political equals.

At 11:15 PM, Blogger Perun said...

Btw, why on earth would China attack Taiwan? There are few landing places on the island, and those places are heavily defended. It would literally be a suicide mission. It could be even be compared to the idiocy of having large columns of men would run towards entrenched machine gun positions, as happened during the trench warfare of World War 1.

At 4:17 AM, Anonymous 1976 said...

Hmmm, I think its about time Americas rain comes to an end, it won't be China that start war with America, it will be Americas ego that can't let China have its turn thus Taiwan will be Americas excuse "we had to help the people of Taiwan" when they really couldn't give a shit about the Taiwanese. It will be the American ego that will be the destruction of us all.

At 8:21 PM, Anonymous 1976 said...

@ Perun

The great wall of china was built to trap raiders in so the forces at the time could catch them before they escaped with the loot....


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