What's up with the NIE on Iran?

By Aussiegirl

Herb Meyer had a piece in yesterday's American Thinker speculating about the possible meaning of a leaked NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) concerning the timing of an Iranian nuclear device. Today, AT's Doug Hanson has some additional thoughts as to what this means vis a vis the state of our intelligence community or the Administration's policy. Should the third possibility of Mr. Meyer prove correct, that the Bush administration deliberately leaked these estimates to cover its own planned policy with Iran, it would be a major retreat from the stated goal of encouraging democracy in the world, and the Middle East in particular. What happens in Iran is vital right now, and it's important to try to stay informed and current on what is going on there.

First here are Herb Meyer's thoughts on the NIE and the three possible reasons for its release. See what you think -- unfortunately, I tend to favor reason number three, as I have seen precious little American policy regarding Iran so far.

Read Mr. Meyer's thoughts:

It turns out that the leaked conclusions come from a finished NIE – not a draft – which means this is the first major NIE produced since John Negroponte took over as our country’s Director of National Intelligence. The question is: What on earth is going on here?

The first possibility is that the new NIE is accurate, which means that Iran really isn’t close to having nukes and, thus, really isn’t a threat to anyone. I find this hard to believe – that’s putting it very politely – but purely in the interests of honest speculation we must at least consider the possibility.

The second possibility is that DNI Negroponte signed off on the NIE without actually troubling himself to read it – in which case he’s done more damage to the President’s credibility than his hapless predecessor, George Tenet, ever did.

The third possibility is that the Administration wanted this NIE to leak because it provides “cover” for the Administration’s unsettling new approach to the mullahs in Teheran – namely, to negotiate with them rather than to confront them and perhaps even overthrow them.

Now read Doug Hansons's ideas:

Iran's nuke threat underestimated by NIE

The revelation by Herb Meyer that the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) cited by Rick Moran is, in fact, a finished product indicates serious problems within our intelligence community or our Administration. Sadly, the available evidence points to Herb’s second possibility, which is that Negroponte signed off on the estimate without a clear understanding of how the CIA has consistently understated Iran’s nuclear capability.

Mr. Meyer suggests third possibility in that the NIE was deliberately leaked to provide cover for secret negotiations between the mullahs and the Administration. This option was discussed by Dr. Mohamed Ibn Guadi and me this past April. Should a deal be cut, it would enable the mullahs to retain power, they would call off their mercenaries in Iraq, and they would sweeten the deal with energy concessions. There is only one problem; the people of Iran would have an infinitely harder time of throwing off the shackles of oppression if the mullahs remained in power. If GW sticks to his principles, this option is off the table.

Anything is possible in a war where intense battles are fought both overseas and within our government agencies. However, the CIA’s track record suggests that Mr. Meyer’s misgivings about John Negroponte are correct.