Predictions and analysis of the upcoming Ukrainian parliamentary elections

By Aussiegirl

Here's is Walter Dzerko's analysis of the upcoming election -- looks like even if Yushchenko and Yanukovych have to enter into a coalition, Ukraine's trend towards the west will remain essentially unchanged. Let's hope for the best, with these new elections the powers of the presidency under Yushchenko become greatly weakened and the Prime Minister and the parliament will wield greater power. This was as a result of a compromise reached during the Orange Revolution by Viktor Yushchenko. The main thing seems to be that Ukraine maintain its momentum to integrate with Western Europe and eventually NATO and to further establish its independence from Russia and solidify democratic and economic gains. Rome wasn't built in a day.

I’m back in Toronto, after a week long trip to Kyiv

I met with the new Canadian ambassador on Monday. A number of people in the Canadian embassy and many others think & are comfortable with the eventuality that there will likely be a Nasha Ukraina ( Yushenko) and Partija Rehijonov (Yanukowych ) coalition after the elections, because no one party will gain a clear majority.

Even though Zvarych said it won’t happen, I think this is pre-election posturing …Zvarchych & NU doesn’t want to offend loyal Orange supporters…but in reality there may be no other choice

Yulia Tymoshenko (BUT) surely won’t be part of a 3 way grand coalition. She will sooner be in opposition & that’s not a bad thing either

According to Prof Evhen Kaminsky, a noted Ukrainian politician scientist,, Renat Akhmetov was recently quoted in Dontesk TV and media that he is in favor of NATO integration and is pro EU.

Polling results for Ukraine joining NATO jumped by more then 10% after that …...His appearance on TV did more for the NATO cause then all the PR done by NATO itself in Ukraine in the past two years

Renat will be the one dictating Party of Regions (PRU) policy and not Viktor Yanukovych, who everyone knows is just the mouthpiece

My personal feeling is that in the long term –this is good for Ukraine. Just like the US business elite who eventually went legit ( ie, the Kennedy family and others) after longstanding conflicts with the law, tax people and gov’t.

Yushchenko should be trying to convert the Pinchuks and Akhmentov’s to pay their fair share of taxes, and support Ukrainian nation-building, send their kids to Ukraine universities vs overseas and support local educational institutions. We are seeing the first signs of that trend in Ukraine now.

I’m optimistic and so is the Ukrainian stock market, which shot up recently according to Dragon Capital.

We need all these three billionaire guys on

board the nation building train….they are all smart businessmen and see the signposts on the road.